Job growth is likely to slow in Texas next year, but will still more than double the national job growth rate, economists told business leaders in San Antonio this month.
And the state and local housing market should remain strong, they said.
The tone of the economic overview sponsored by Frost Bank and Ernst & Young was upbeat, despite forecasts that the economic slowdown nationally will continue.
"The U.S. economy will grow moderately in 2007," said Keith Phillips, senior economist with the San Antonio branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. "Texas' economy will moderate but will grow faster than the U.S."
He and Mark Dotzour, chief economist with the Texas A&M University Real Estate Center, said Texas should have an edge in housing affordability, energy impact, jobs and other factors as the economy heads into the new year.
"I see next year being good, perhaps very good for housing" in Texas, Dotzour said.
This year, the state's labor market could expand by 3.1 percent compared with the nation's 1.3 percent growth rate, he said.
Next year, Phillips expects Texas' job growth will slow to about 2 percent but be about twice the rate recorded nationally.
Phillips does not expect the nation's economy to slip into a recession, despite the existence of an inverted yield curve. That condition, which arises when short-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates, has been a strong indicator of recessions in the past.
Phillips said it may not be as dependable now because long-term rates are affected more by international markets.
Source: San Antonio Express-News
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